May kicked off with a stunning miss on the previous month’s employment report which came in at a disappointing 266k and confirmed recent anecdotal evidence from across the economy that if the government incentivizes its labor force to stay home, it will do just that.
The convergence of ultra-easy fiscal and monetary policy with global supply chain disruptions, which became ever more prominent as U.S. consumers, having saved around 8% of GDP began to unleash their pent-up demand, resulted in inflation indicators and debates exploding higher.
Following strong performance and record issuance of convertible bonds over the last several years, investors are beginning to take notice of the attractive characteristics of this unique asset class.
Return of capital (ROC) or nondividend distributions are among the least understood type of distribution that investors receive. This is largely because an ROC distribution is a tax concept and not an economic concept, meaning that it tells an investor little about whether the distribution was earned but rather how the IRS will classify this distribution.
The bond market picked up in 2021 where it left off in the fourth quarter of 2020, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rising from 0.93% on December 31, 2020 to 1.75% on March 31, 2021. The dramatic move spelled carnage for fixed-income markets, with the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate U.S. Bond Index losing 3.4% during the quarter (bond prices move in inverse to bond yields).
The bond market picked up in 2021 where it left off in the fourth quarter of 2020, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rising from 0.93% on December 31, 2020 to 1.75% on March 31, 2021. The dramatic move spelled carnage for fixed-income markets, with the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate U.S. Bond Index losing 3.4% during the quarter (bond prices move in inverse to bond yields).
Convertible bonds performed well during Q1 2021 despite some significant rotations. Factors such as stimulus and reflation are positioned to support the continued outperformance in 2021.
Agency mortgages are those that are explicitly or implicitly guaranteed by the government. There are three GSEs (Government Sponsored Entities); Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. GSE mortgages and bonds backed by those mortgages have no credit risk, but do have interest rate risk.
In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
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