While the risk of another consumer credit meltdown might be rising, the structure of the consumer credit market, particularly with respect to residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), is fundamentally less vulnerable than it was in the 2005-2008 period.
There is a $16 trillion pile of negative yielding debt around the world and global central banks are officially trying to out-dove each other as one after next slashes interest rates in a race to the bottom. Against this backdrop, what is an investor to do?!
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.