As the economy continues to recover with inflation increasing, many investors are starting to realize that the tech-fueled V-shaped recovery may have caused equity valuations to trade at a premium.
May kicked off with a stunning miss on the previous month’s employment report which came in at a disappointing 266k and confirmed recent anecdotal evidence from across the economy that if the government incentivizes its labor force to stay home, it will do just that.
The most considerable risk to markets has naturally started to shift as COVID-19 uncertainty fizzles out. Inflation, monetary policy shifts, and accelerated economic recovery have emerged as the refocused market risks.
The seemingly unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus seen in the past 14 months will have consequences. We believe part of these consequences will show up in the form of inflation.
The media is buzzing with claims of an “Economic Boom” in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already “baked in?”
Social status quos will remain challenging to break as excuse maintenance of present circumstances for many will likely linger for years. Permanent changes to the 5-day work week, city living, suburban population increases, and significant public events will probably take many years to normalize as the stigma of COVID-19 will remain challenging to ignore.
Predicting the future of any country in the long-term is not easy – which is precisely why the future of that great sleeping geopolitical behemoth, the European Union, is so hard to do.
As COVID-19 uncertainty starts normalizing, social investing subsiding (post-stimulus checks), and stock market appreciation stalling (compared to mid- 2020 and early 2021 levels), many investors began to seek answers to the most coveted questions in finance: "When is the next market bubble?", "What is the catalyst of this market bubble?" and "How do we (investors) profit or avoid its shockwaves?"
The convergence of ultra-easy fiscal and monetary policy with global supply chain disruptions, which became ever more prominent as U.S. consumers, having saved around 8% of GDP began to unleash their pent-up demand, resulted in inflation indicators and debates exploding higher.