There are many ways to track consumer and investor sentiment. Generally, only at extremes does the data offer very compelling investment opportunities.
Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.
CPI is now stable and trending modestly lower with the Fed able to be patient. The stage is now set for broader participation across size & style boxes.
One report I always enjoy getting is the AAII individual investors’ stock sentiment survey. In yesterday’s report, 50.3% of investors reported they are bearish on stocks. For reference, the historical average for bearishness is 31%.
One report I always enjoy getting is the AAII individual investors’ stock sentiment survey. In yesterday’s report, 50.3% of investors reported they are bearish on stocks. For reference, the historical average for bearishness is 31%.
Volatility is down to start the week as the market is rebouding. Look for the market to move on the Jobs number on friday. Watch OIL as a sign for global growth and the risks of escalation in war.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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