Economic Insights

Recession Risks. Are They Already Priced In?

Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.

“HODL” Finds Its Inevitable Flaw

“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and...

NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again

NFIB signals a recession is coming…again. The reason I say “again” is because, in September 2019, we discussed these same signals stating:

Catalyst/Rational Instant Reaction & Analysis: Fed Raises Interest Rates 75 Bps

What was once (rather recently) deemed as “off the table” for the Fed this month, the FOMC today took aggressive action, announcing the largest interest rate hike since 1994 (75 bps) as they seek to combat runaway inflation. See below for insights and initial reactions from the investment management teams across the Catalyst and Rational Funds networks:

Catalyst/Rational Instant Reaction & Analysis: Fed Raises Interest Rates 75 Bps

What was once (rather recently) deemed as “off the table” for the Fed this month, the FOMC today took aggressive action, announcing the largest interest rate hike since 1994 (75 bps) as they seek to combat runaway inflation. See below for insights and initial reactions from the investment management teams across the Catalyst and Rational Funds networks:

Investors Are Terrified, So Why Aren’t They Selling?

Investors are terrified. Such is what you would assume from recent mainstream media headlines and CNBC’s continuous run of “Markets In Turmoil.” There are also plenty of indicators suggesting that retail investors are terrified about financial markets. For example, the net percentage of bullish responses from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and the Institutional Investors index (INVI) are near previous bear market lows. Such is despite the sharp rally over the last two weeks.

Fed Pause? Markets Hope So, But Likely Not Yet.

Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct? That is the question that everyone is trying to answer. Of course, after more than a decade of monetary interventions, investors have developed a “Pavlovian” response to market declines and the “Fed Put.”

What To Expect in Second Half of 2022: A Macro View

As we approach the halfway point of 2022, investors remain uncertain of what to expect throughout the next six months.

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