Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.
What was once (rather recently) deemed as “off the table” for the Fed this month, the FOMC today took aggressive action, announcing the largest interest rate hike since 1994 (75 bps) as they seek to combat runaway inflation. See below for insights and initial reactions from the investment management teams across the Catalyst and Rational Funds networks:
What was once (rather recently) deemed as “off the table” for the Fed this month, the FOMC today took aggressive action, announcing the largest interest rate hike since 1994 (75 bps) as they seek to combat runaway inflation. See below for insights and initial reactions from the investment management teams across the Catalyst and Rational Funds networks:
Investors are terrified. Such is what you would assume from recent mainstream media headlines and CNBC’s continuous run of “Markets In Turmoil.” There are also plenty of indicators suggesting that retail investors are terrified about financial markets. For example, the net percentage of bullish responses from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and the Institutional Investors index (INVI) are near previous bear market lows. Such is despite the sharp rally over the last two weeks.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers came in below expectations for August, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report indicated that nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 142,000 jobs during the month (against expectations of 161,000 jobs).
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