Economic Insights

Knocked Down Inflation: July 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.

Carry Traders Get Carried Out

It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.

Small Cap Catch-Up: Market Reset?

This week marks the beginning of a significant earnings season, with reports expected from several major companies including NFLX, ASML, JNJ, BA, MS, UNH, TSM, and GS.

June Retail Sales Report Leads to More Questions

Today's retail sales release has us scratching our heads. The posted number showed strong retail sales for the month of June (ex-autos) with the control...

June HANDLS Monthly Report: Summer Heat

The graph and table above provide return data for major income-oriented asset categories for the month of June 2024 and YTD 2024. Returns for...

The Fed is Fighting Yesterday’s Problem & Creating Tomorrow’s Economic Challenge

While the first quarter's CPI prints this year were above expectations, one needs to 'look under the hood' to have a better view on inflation (where it was and where it is going).

Monetary Policy Is Increasing The Deficit

Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest ten-year budget projection. Significant deterioration in our fiscal outlook is visible with every release.

Is it time to carve off some capital from todays most crowded trades?

The longer the period one gets rewarded, the less risky we feel the investment becomes. Risk happens slowly and then all at once.

Newsletter

Don't miss

What’s the Real Value of Active Management?

In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.

Election Trepidation: October 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.

The Election Results Are In. The Market Likes the Results.

As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.

Thematic Investing Can Add a Ton of Value to Portfolios

Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.

Investing in Big Rivers is a No-Brainer, Common Sense Decision.

The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.