Commodity & Infrastructure Insights

The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming. There is currently much debate in the mainstream media suggesting investors should ignore Fed rate hikes. To wit:

The continued rally in the energy sector is steadily lifting past performance ahead of the S&P500 over multiple timeframes. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) now has a higher annual return than the S&P500 over the past one, two and three years. Even over five years the performance gap is closing. The 12.3% pa return on the S&P500 is 3.1% ahead of the AEITR. On the Covid low (3/18/20), the AEITR five year trailing return was –19.2% pa, 23.9% worse than the S&P500. It was a dark moment indeed for pipeline investors, and especially so for those focused on MLPs where the carnage was even worse. 

Financial advisors probably feel that they’re more than earning their pay recently. Market volatility is high, which means clients want to know what’s going on. Advisors have in the past confided to me that one of their most important roles is to persuade clients from selling impetuously. Their original asset allocation was made after much careful consideration and ought not to be tinkered with just because the market’s moved a bit. Friday’s rally helped, but the S&P500 is still -15% for the year. If you have energy exposure, you’ll have done better.

Financial advisors probably feel that they’re more than earning their pay recently. Market volatility is high, which means clients want to know what’s going on. Advisors have in the past confided to me that one of their most important roles is to persuade clients from selling impetuously. Their original asset allocation was made after much careful consideration and ought not to be tinkered with just because the market’s moved a bit. Friday’s rally helped, but the S&P500 is still -15% for the year. If you have energy exposure, you’ll have done better.

Earnings for pipeline companies are generally devoid of excitement unless steady growth gets you animated, such is the stability of most business models. But 1Q22 earnings were full of positive surprises. Cheniere (CEI) blew away expectations with 1Q22 EBITDA 65% ahead of consensus. Most of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) contracts are based on a fixed charge for liquefaction, but in some cases they’re able to market the LNG themselves.

Earnings for pipeline companies are generally devoid of excitement unless steady growth gets you animated, such is the stability of most business models. But 1Q22 earnings were full of positive surprises. Cheniere (CEI) blew away expectations with 1Q22 EBITDA 65% ahead of consensus. Most of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) contracts are based on a fixed charge for liquefaction, but in some cases they’re able to market the LNG themselves.

Last week recession questions were more common than in the past during our many conversations with clients. The likely performance of the energy sector during a slowdown is what they’re asking.

Last week recession questions were more common than in the past during our many conversations with clients. The likely performance of the energy sector during a slowdown is what they’re asking.