Today's much anticipated release of economic data including the Employment Cost Index (ECI) and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) all painted the picture of a goldilocks scenario. Inflation is abating, wages and labor market conditions are cooling, while the economy continues to grow, and spending remains resilient.
This week marks the beginning of a significant earnings season, with reports expected from several major companies including NFLX, ASML, JNJ, BA, MS, UNH, TSM, and GS.
While the first quarter's CPI prints this year were above expectations, one needs to 'look under the hood' to have a better view on inflation (where it was and where it is going).
Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest ten-year budget projection. Significant deterioration in our fiscal outlook is visible with every release.