Comparing This Year’s Corn Price Movement to the Past

We’ve been looking over the data from last month’s corn action. We weren’t very pleased with the tariff announcements coming 2 weeks ahead of the USDA report and wanted to see just how different price was this year compared to the past.

The price drop averaged over 1% a day for 13 days sounded to be a lot, so we looked to see if that was unusual.  Turns out that the last 3 of 4 June’s have had price averages of 1% movement per day over short time periods (12 to 17 days).  If you take this year’s late May high to the low on June 19^th, it’s a full 17.8% in 18 days –nearly 1% a day average loss for nearly a full trading month. One stand out item to note is that the price action in 2015 was from low to high instead of high to low which was seen in the past 4 of 5 years.  This clearly shows that once the top (or bottom) is in, a trader should have a good chance of a decent trend trade for a few weeks.   Watching Sentiment, the CoT data or even the Money Flow Indicator could help give indications of when the turn may come.