Michael Schoonover, COO & Portfolio Manager
Michael Schoonover, COO & Portfolio Manager

Chart of the Week: is the Stock Market Getting Ahead of Itself?

Economic Insights

S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE)

Even before November’s post-election rally, Wall Street was growing increasingly worried that the stock market was starting to get ahead of itself.

  • In October, Goldman Sachs strategists cautioned investors to be prepared for stock market returns during the next decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution.
  • As of November 11, 2024, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (or CAPE) hit a staggering 38.12x. Looking at these valuation levels going back to 1900, there has only been one instance where the S&P 500 produced a positive return in the following 10 years. In July 1998, the CAPE hit 38.26x and the 10-year return after was 0.84% annualized.
  • S&P 500 10-year returns averaged -2.75% annualized following valuations like in November 2024.

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Michael Schoonover, COO & Portfolio Manager
Michael Schoonover, COO & Portfolio Manager
Michael Schoonover is Chief Operating Officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC, Catalyst International Advisors LLC and Rational Advisors, Inc. He is an experienced financial professional having worked in various portfolio management, operations management, and trust officer roles. He serves in various executive roles for U.S. registered investment advisers and marketing and consulting companies in the investment management industry. He is President of Mutual Fund Series Trust, President of Mutual Fund & Variable Insurance Trust, and President of Strategy Shares. Mr. Schoonover has a Bachelor of Science degree in biochemistry from the University of Michigan and a Master of Business Administration degree with high distinction from the University of Michigan.

David Miller on CNBC’s Market Navigator: Will Overheating Hurt Nvidia?

David Miller -
Will Mag 7 stock Nvidia beat estimates? David Miller, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Catalyst Funds, Rational Funds, and Strategy Shares, provided his insights to CNBC on Nov. 19 on why he believes the company will come out ahead this week despite potentially challenging headlines.
Read more

What’s the Real Value of Active Management?

Eric Clark, Portfolio Manager -
In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
Read more

Election Trepidation: October 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

David Cohen -
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
Read more

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