White Papers

You Can’t Create Permanent Inflation from Artificial Growth

Currently, depending on whether you are “bullish” or “bearish,” there is much angst over the prospect of higher inflation. If you are bullish, higher inflation is a reflection of surging economic growth. If you are bearish, higher inflation leads to rising costs and higher rates. However, we need a better definition of what inflation is.

Fed Starting Campaign To Taper Its Asset Purchases

Over the last couple of months, the Fed started its campaign to prepare markets for a “taper” of its asset purchases.

Have Stocks Already Priced in the “Economic Boom?”

The media is buzzing with claims of an “Economic Boom” in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already “baked in?”

Have Stocks Already Priced in the “Economic Boom?”

The media is buzzing with claims of an “Economic Boom” in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already “baked in?”

#MacroView: Bear Markets Matter More Than You Think (Part-2)

Chasing an arbitrary index that is 100% invested in the equity market requires you to take on far more risk than you most likely realize.

#MacroView: Confusing Market Crashes & Bear Markets. (Part-1)

Over the long term, confusing market crashes and bear markets can be detrimental to investor outcomes. Yet, this is what Morningstar did recently in discussing the market correction in 2020.

#MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only An Economic Recovery

The recent NFIB survey suggests we are only in an economic recovery, not an expansion. Such was a point I made with Daniel Lacalle in a recent podcast.

#MacroView: Are Stocks Cheap, Or Just Another Rationalization?

Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.”

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Markets Gone Wild: April 2025 HANDLS Monthly Report

April 2025 delivered a dramatic episode in what has already been a year marked by heightened volatility.

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Short-Term Noise Can Lead to Long-Term Opportunity

If you only take one thing from today’s writing, take this: storms are a sideshow to sunnier days.