Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the “Party Hats,” it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.
After 40-years of economic erosion, there are still deficit deniers.
The belief that debt and deficits “don’t matter” primarily stems from the basis the economy hasn’t collapsed and become a historical equivalent of Weimer, Germany. However, the rather elementary view fails to distinguish that dropping a frog into boiling water or slowly bringing the water to a boil equates to the same outcome. That latter just takes longer to get there.
After 40-years of economic erosion, there are still deficit deniers.
The belief that debt and deficits “don’t matter” primarily stems from the basis the economy hasn’t collapsed and become a historical equivalent of Weimer, Germany. However, the rather elementary view fails to distinguish that dropping a frog into boiling water or slowly bringing the water to a boil equates to the same outcome. That latter just takes longer to get there.
Gold. What’s wrong with it? From spiking inflation, falling real interest rates, and massive money printing, it seems logical that gold, a touted inflation hedge, should be rising. Yet, so far this year, gold has done little.
Stretched valuations in many stock and bond markets are challenging investors to look farther afield to meet investor return targets. Many investors find themselves recommending portfolios that are uncomfortably far out along the risk curve, stretching for higher yields and increasing pro-cyclical asset exposure.
The question of Japanization in the U.S. continues as the S&P 500 tracks the Nikkei of 1980. An email question I received recently is worth discussing in more detail.
The question of Japanization in the U.S. continues as the S&P 500 tracks the Nikkei of 1980. An email question I received recently is worth discussing in more detail.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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