The year 2021 was a mixed bag of innovation, value vs. growth debates, equity recalibrations, high supply side inflation (stagflation), structurally challenged employment data, new virus variants and projected rate hikes. Going into the end of the year, the highly transmissible Omicron variant is roiling markets, overshadowing the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) policy guidance of rate hike to rein in inflation.
Last week Fed chair Jay Powell pivoted away from “transitory”, and adopted a tone more in keeping with the market’s newly revised interest rate forecast. As a result, today’s yield curve is far away from the September FOMC projections, even though they’ll be revised at this month’s meeting.
Last week Fed chair Jay Powell pivoted away from “transitory”, and adopted a tone more in keeping with the market’s newly revised interest rate forecast. As a result, today’s yield curve is far away from the September FOMC projections, even though they’ll be revised at this month’s meeting.
Could the Fed trigger the next "financial crisis" as they begin to hike interest rates? Such is certainly a question worth asking as we look back at the Fed's history of previous monetary actions. Such was a topic I discussed in "Investors Push Risk Bets."
It’s easy to criticize the Fed. They’ve maintained their uber-accommodative monetary policy for probably a year longer than needed. Once the vaccine breakthrough was announced last November, prudence dictated that they anticipate an economic rebound and begin normalizing rates.
It’s easy to criticize the Fed. They’ve maintained their uber-accommodative monetary policy for probably a year longer than needed. Once the vaccine breakthrough was announced last November, prudence dictated that they anticipate an economic rebound and begin normalizing rates.
Do rising interest rates matter to the stock market? Many in the financial media and advisory community are scrambling to locate periods where rates rose along with stocks. Has it happened? Absolutely. However, it was only a function of timing until it mattered.
I've said it repeatedly over the last 5 years and it warrants repeating: nothing is more predictable than a consumers' propensity to spend. If you haven't implemented a consumer spending dedicated core equity position yet, you are missing a thematic that drives 70% of our $21 trillion economy. The same theme drives every major economy. How can anyone ignore a $40 trillion a year, highly predictable thematic in a portfolio? We can help you get right-sized for this opportunity.
The recent shift in tariff policies has added a layer of complexity to the economic landscape, potentially influencing market sentiment and investment decisions.
There are several powerful mega-trends happening around the world. One of these trends is happening in the financial services industry and is still a game in the early innings.