Stretched valuations in many stock and bond markets are challenging investors to look farther afield to meet investor return targets. Many investors find themselves recommending portfolios that are uncomfortably far out along the risk curve, stretching for higher yields and increasing pro-cyclical asset exposure.
Although no economy is the same and there are relevant differences between the Japanese and the US or European macro setup, we can learn quite a few things by studying what happened in a jurisdiction that experimented with QE and ‘‘QE + fiscal’’ already 20-30 years ago.
The biggest wildcard for U.S. inflation over the next year doesn’t come from used cars or airline fares. Instead, it is housing. At MAP, we spend much of our time reading. We want to point you to our favorite articles. Here is our weekly curation of our favorite reads.
The biggest wildcard for U.S. inflation over the next year doesn’t come from used cars or airline fares. Instead, it is housing. At MAP, we spend much of our time reading. We want to point you to our favorite articles. Here is our weekly curation of our favorite reads.
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.”
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.”
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. However, during those two months, the economy fell by 31.4% (GDP), and the financial markets plunged by 33%. Both of those declines, as shown in the table below, are within historical norms.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. However, during those two months, the economy fell by 31.4% (GDP), and the financial markets plunged by 33%. Both of those declines, as shown in the table below, are within historical norms.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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