In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.”
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.”
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. However, during those two months, the economy fell by 31.4% (GDP), and the financial markets plunged by 33%. Both of those declines, as shown in the table below, are within historical norms.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. However, during those two months, the economy fell by 31.4% (GDP), and the financial markets plunged by 33%. Both of those declines, as shown in the table below, are within historical norms.
Stocks marched higher during the past three months, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly advance since the pandemic-induced crash last year. Value stocks continued their upward momentum but did give up some of their gains relative to growth stocks in June.
Bond yields are sending an economic warning as this past week 10-year Treasury yields dropped back to 1.3%. With the simultaneous surge in the dollar, there is rising evidence the economic “reflation” trade is getting unwound.
“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media.
In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
Catalyst Funds
Rational Funds
Strategy Shares