Introduction
The ongoing Federal Reserve cycle has sparked intense debate regarding its resemblance to the 2007 and 1998 financial crises. While a definitive answer remains...
After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.
Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?
Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?
Key Summary:
Sentiment towards the consumer and spending is about as negative as I’ve seen.
Assets...
After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
This week marks the beginning of a significant earnings season, with reports expected from several major companies including NFLX, ASML, JNJ, BA, MS, UNH, TSM, and GS.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers came in below expectations for August, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report indicated that nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 142,000 jobs during the month (against expectations of 161,000 jobs).
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