David Cohen

October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.

The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers came in below expectations for August, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report indicated that nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 142,000 jobs during the month (against expectations of 161,000 jobs).

After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.

After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.

The graph and table above provide return data for major income-oriented asset categories for the month of June 2024 and YTD 2024. Returns for...

While March signaled gains, April proved challenging, culminating in widespread losses.

Investors seeking clarity on the future path of inflation and interest rates struggled to find it in March as key economic indictors sent mixed signals. The month kicked off with a strong February jobs report, with the Labor Department reporting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month (against expectations of 198,000). While the February numbers suggested the economy continues to run hot, downward revisions to the December and January reports reduced the initial estimates for those months by 167,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February.

Much like the Las Vegas Hotel on the Strip that appears to be right next door, investors are discovering in 2024 that interest rate cuts are farther away than they seem.