77% and 27 months

It’s eerie sometimes to see how close history gets to repeating itself.  The big oil decline during 2008 which bottomed in 2009 dropped the price of crude by 77.2%.  Fast forward a few years and from mid-2014 to Feb 2016, crude again declined…by 76.8%.  Round each of those numbers and the declines were both 77%. After the Feb 2009 low, 27s month later, crude had a peak followed by a period of consolidation.

Here we are now, 27 months since Feb 2016’s oil low with charts having a similar pattern.  I’m curious to see how the next few months will play out.  If history repeats, oil could be in for a decline and then some consolidation.

On Wed.,  oil peaked at $71.36 per barrel. That translates to a nearly 20% YTD increase and 70% off the low last summer.  I’ve read plenty of articles lately portraying why oil should move higher, but let’s not forget where we are in the calendar.  According to StockCharts.com’s seasonality chart of crude, over the past 5 years, June and July have not exactly been strong months.

The oil bulls should enjoy the ride while it lasts.